Salesforce Forecast Accuracy Audit
Compare forecasts with outcomes to improve calibration.
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Audit forecast accuracy. Data for the last four quarters: forecast commit, best case and closed won by quarter and by rep or team: [FORECAST_DATA]. Stage probabilities used: [PROBABILITIES]. Definitions of commit and best case: [DEFINITIONS]. Show a quarterly table with forecast, actual, accuracy (actual divided by forecast) and bias. Example: forecasts of 100, 120 and 90 against actuals of 85, 110 and 80 give differences of -15, -10 and -10, an average bias of -11.7, meaning forecasts run about 11.7 higher than results. Also compute the stage-to-win conversion for past opportunities. Check whether bias is concentrated in particular teams, weeks of the quarter or large deals, and look for sandbagging, optimism, late changes and pushed deals. Propose calibrated probabilities as suggestions with sample sizes; small samples make probabilities unreliable. Return a table, three hypotheses with tests, and process changes such as requiring evidence for commit deals, a forecast review ritual, and a rule for recording reasons for changes. Do not use the figures to rank people. State the limits of each calculation and what data is missing.
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