Pre-Mortem Workshop for a New Product Bet
Run a pre-mortem on a new product bet to surface risks, rank them, assign tests and turn them into a discovery plan.
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Help me run a pre-mortem workshop for a product bet. The bet in one paragraph: [PRODUCT_BET]. Launch date or decision date: [TARGET_DATE]. Participants and roles: [PARTICIPANTS]. Success measures: [SUCCESS_MEASURES]. Known risks already discussed: [KNOWN_RISKS]. Produce: a 60 minute agenda with time boxes; a facilitator script that asks everyone to imagine that the bet failed completely and write reasons silently first; a template for collecting reasons with categories (customers, value, technical, market, team, legal and compliance, go-to-market); a scoring method where each risk gets likelihood 1 to 5 and impact 1 to 5 and a score by multiplying, with the arithmetic shown for five example risks; and a risk table with the columns Risk, Score, Evidence we have, Cheapest test, Owner, Date, Decision it affects. Add rules to keep the session psychologically safe, a way to hear from quieter people, and a follow-up message that summarises the top five risks and the tests agreed. Explain the difference between a risk to test now and a risk to monitor. Do not claim the process predicts failure; it prompts useful questions. Do not invent evidence or market facts; mark unknowns "Evidence needed". Legal, compliance and safety risks must go to qualified people for review [VERIFY]. Add a worked example with invented details: a bet to launch a paid mobile app for home energy tracking, with risks scored 20, 16, 12, 9 and 6.
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