Presenting Uncertainty in Charts
Show error bars and intervals so people understand them.
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Show uncertainty clearly. My estimates and their uncertainty (standard errors, confidence intervals, ranges, or model scenarios): [ESTIMATES_AND_UNCERTAINTY]. Audience: [AUDIENCE]. Decision the chart informs: [DECISION]. Library: [PLOTTING_LIBRARY]. Deliver: 1. A comparison of ways to display uncertainty (error bars, shaded bands, fan charts, gradient bands, dot plots with intervals, quantile dot plots, spaghetti plots of scenarios), with the audience each suits and the misreadings each invites. For example, error bars are often read as the range of the data when they show the uncertainty of the estimate. 2. A recommendation for my audience and decision. 3. Plain-language wording for what the interval means, for example "If we repeated this study many times, about 95 of 100 such intervals would contain the true value", and a simpler version for non-specialists. 4. The code, with the interval drawn behind the estimate and labeled. 5. A rule for overlapping intervals: they do not by themselves prove there is no difference, and how to test the difference directly. 6. A caption of 30 to 50 words that states the estimate, the range, and the main caveat. 7. A check that I am not using precision (many decimals) that the uncertainty does not support.
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