Discount Impact Analysis
Check whether a promotion actually paid.
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Analyse whether a discount promotion paid off. Sales data before, during, and after the promotion: [SALES_DATA]. Price, cost, and discount level: [PRICING]. Other things that changed in the same period: [OTHER_CHANGES]. Set up the workbook to compare units and gross margin during the promotion with a baseline from comparable weeks, account for pull-forward (lower sales after the promotion), and compute incremental margin. Provide formulas and a decision rule. Warn about confounding factors listed above and about using a single comparison period. Include a sensitivity table for baseline assumptions. Write a three-sentence conclusion template that states what is known and what is not, and avoid claiming that the promotion caused changes without support. Add a section on customer effects: new versus existing customers, repeat purchase afterwards, and returns, and a note about checking that the discount did not train customers to wait for sales. Add a simple template for the final summary: baseline units, promotion units, incremental units, margin change, and the confidence level with the reasons for it.
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