Quantitative Risk Estimate (Simple)
Estimate exposure with probability and impact numbers.
The Open buttons send the prompt text as currently shown below to that site only when you click. Fill in the placeholders first.
Help me quantify project risk simply. Risks with descriptions: [RISK_LIST]. Estimates of probability and impact in money or days, where available: [ESTIMATES]. Contingency currently held: [CONTINGENCY]. Create a table of risks with probability, impact, and expected value (probability times impact), and sum them. Explain the limits of this method: independence assumptions, rare large events, and subjective estimates. Show a simple scenario analysis with best, expected, and worst cases. Compare the total with the contingency and say whether it looks sufficient, noting the uncertainty. Suggest ways to improve estimates such as asking three people independently and comparing. Do not invent probabilities; ask me for missing values. Add a table of the five largest contributors to expected value, and a sensitivity check showing how the total changes if each probability moves by ten percentage points. Provide a short explanation for a non-specialist audience of what the number means and does not mean, and a list of data sources inside the organisation that could improve the estimates. Add a worked example with five invented risks and their expected values, such as a supplier delay with a 30 percent probability and a 12,000 impact giving 3,600, and the total compared with a contingency of 8,000. Show the best, expected and worst cases and explain why summing expected values understates the tail when risks are correlated. Label it an illustration. Add a method for improving probability estimates: ask three people independently, record the range, discuss the outliers, and use the median. Provide a procedure for updating the numbers monthly and a rule for releasing contingency when a risk expires. Add a plain-language paragraph for the sponsor describing what the figures mean and a warning that they are judgements, not measurements. Close by naming the two risks where a better estimate would change the contingency most, and the cheapest way to improve each estimate this week.
Fill in before use
Optional: type your details and the prompt above updates. Nothing is saved or sent.
Replace each bracketed placeholder with your own details, then paste into Any AI or another assistant.