Three-Point Estimation Worksheet
Estimate tasks with optimistic, likely and pessimistic values.
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Create a three-point estimation worksheet for my project. Task list with brief descriptions: [TASK_LIST]. Unit of estimate (hours, days): [UNIT]. Who will estimate: [ESTIMATORS]. For each task ask for or propose three values: optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic. Compute the expected duration with the weighted formula (optimistic plus four times most likely plus pessimistic, divided by six) and the standard deviation as (pessimistic minus optimistic) divided by six, showing the calculation for the first three tasks and a table for the rest. Add up the expected values for the critical tasks and combine standard deviations using the square root of the sum of squares, stating the assumption of independence and why it may not hold. Provide a range for the whole project at roughly 50 and 85 percent confidence, labelled as approximations. Flag the tasks with the widest spread and ask me three questions about each so I can reduce uncertainty. Quality bar: show every formula so I can audit it. Add a worked example with invented tasks so the arithmetic can be audited: task A with optimistic 4, most likely 6, pessimistic 14 days gives an expected value of 7 days and a standard deviation of 1.67; task B with 2, 3, 6 gives 3.33 and 0.67. Show the sum of expected values for a critical path of five tasks, the combined standard deviation by square root of the sum of squares, and the 50 percent and roughly 85 percent ranges. Label it an illustration. Add a section on estimation traps (anchoring on the first number, padding every estimate, estimating in a group where the most senior person speaks first) and a method such as independent estimates followed by discussion. Provide a rule for re-estimating after the first milestone and recording estimate versus actual so later estimates improve. Close with a note on how to present the result honestly: give the range, say which tasks drive the spread, and list the assumptions that would change the figures.
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