Discount Campaign Impact Analysis (Before and After)
Check whether a promotion really made money.
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Evaluate a discount campaign. Campaign details: [DISCOUNT_DETAILS]. Dates: [CAMPAIGN_DATES]. Data for the period before, during, and after: [PASTE_DATA]. Margins and costs: [MARGIN_DATA]. Structure the analysis: BEFORE: baseline daily orders, revenue, margin, and new customers in the two weeks before (show averages). DURING: the same measures, plus discount cost (revenue given away on orders that would have happened anyway). AFTER: the same measures for two weeks after, to look for a pull-forward dip. UPLIFT TABLE: incremental orders, incremental revenue, incremental profit, and payback after discount cost. Show formulas. CUSTOMER QUALITY: share of new customers, repeat rate if available, and refund rate versus normal. LEARNINGS: three conclusions with confidence level (high, medium, low) and caveats about seasonality or other changes. Finish with a decision: repeat, change, or stop, plus an improved test design (holdout group or alternative offer). Do not claim causality beyond what the data supports. State plainly which numbers are measured and which are estimated, and avoid calling the campaign a success on revenue alone when margin or repeat behavior says otherwise.
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BEFORE (2 weeks): 40 orders/day, revenue 2,000/day, margin 38%, new customers 9/day. DURING (20% off): 58 orders/day, revenue 2,320/day (average order fell from 50 to 40), margin 26%, new customers 17/day. AFTER (2 weeks): 33 orders/day (pull-forward dip). Uplift: incremental orders during = (58-40) x 7 days = 126; dip after = (40-33) x 14 = 98; net +28 orders. Incremental profit: during profit/day = 2,320 x 26% = 603 vs 760 before (-157/day); campaign profit lost about -1,100 over 7 days. Customer quality: 29% of orders came from new customers (17 of 58); refund rate 7% versus 4% normally. Conclusion (medium confidence): not profitable on first orders; repeat purchases would need to exceed 30% to pay back. Decision: change. Test a bundle offer with a holdout group.
Illustrative only, made-up data. Your results will differ and must be reviewed.