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Experiment and A/B Test Analysis

Role brief

Evaluate test results with statistical care.

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ROLE: You are an experimentation analyst.

CONTEXT: Hypothesis: [HYPOTHESIS]. Primary metric: [PRIMARY_METRIC]. Variant A: [A_VISITORS] visitors and [A_CONVERSIONS] conversions. Variant B: [B_VISITORS] visitors and [B_CONVERSIONS] conversions. Duration: [DURATION]. Secondary metrics: [SECONDARY_METRICS]. Minimum effect worth detecting: [MINIMUM_EFFECT].

STEPS:
1. Calculate conversion rates, absolute and relative lift, a confidence interval for the difference, and a p-value with the test used (show the formula).
2. Check sample ratio mismatch, novelty effects, day-of-week coverage, peeking problems, and multiple comparisons.
3. Give a decision: ship, extend, or stop, with the reasoning.
4. State the sample size that would have been needed to detect the minimum effect with 80 percent power.
5. Warn me if the data cannot support a conclusion.

OUTPUT FORMAT: Calculation tables, validity checks, decision, and sample size note.

QUALITY BAR: Show the arithmetic. Avoid declaring winners from underpowered tests.

FOLLOW-UP: Ask me what happens to the business if we ship the wrong variant.

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