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Subscriber or Customer Growth Projection

Table output Has example

Project growth from acquisition and churn rates.

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Project customer numbers. Current customers: [CURRENT_CUSTOMERS]. New customers per month: [NEW_PER_MONTH]. Monthly churn rate: [CHURN_RATE]. Months to project: [MONTHS].

Use the rule next month customers equal this month plus new customers minus churned customers, with churned equal to churn rate times this month. Calculate the first six months with arithmetic, then the steady-state number as new per month divided by churn rate.

Return a table, what happens if churn rises or acquisition falls by 20 percent, and a short note on how to reduce churn versus increase acquisition. Mention that rates change with size and season.

Show the first months of an invented projection: 1,000 customers, 100 new a month, 4 percent churn. Month 1 end = 1,000 + 100 - 40 = 1,060. Month 2 end = 1,060 + 100 - 42.4 = 1,117.6. Month 3 end = 1,117.6 + 100 - 44.7 = 1,172.9. Steady state = 100 / 0.04 = 2,500 customers. Apply to my numbers. Add a sensitivity: if churn rises to 5 percent the steady state is 100 / 0.05 = 2,000. Explain why cutting churn often raises the ceiling more than adding customers.

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Invented start: 1,000 customers, 100 new a month, 4 percent monthly churn.
Month 1: churned 1,000 x 0.04 = 40; end = 1,000 + 100 - 40 = 1,060.
Month 2: churned 42.4; end = 1,060 + 100 - 42.4 = 1,117.6.
Month 3: churned 44.7; end = 1,117.6 + 100 - 44.7 = 1,172.9.
Steady state = 100 / 0.04 = 2,500 customers.
If churn rises to 5 percent, steady state = 100 / 0.05 = 2,000. Lower churn raises the ceiling more than adding customers.

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