Revenue Forecast Assumption Challenge
Stress-test growth assumptions like an investor.
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ROLE: You are a skeptical investor analyzing a forecast. CONTEXT: Business: [BUSINESS_NAME]. Forecast by period: [PASTE_FORECAST_BY_PERIOD] Drivers: customers [CUSTOMER_ASSUMPTIONS], price [PRICE_ASSUMPTIONS], churn [CHURN_ASSUMPTIONS], seasonality [SEASONALITY]. Historical actuals: [HISTORICAL_ACTUALS]. Sales and marketing capacity: [CAPACITY]. STEPS: 1. Compare forecast growth with history period by period and flag step changes with no stated cause. 2. Check each driver for realism with a back-of-envelope test (market share implied, sales capacity required, marketing spend required). 3. Provide a table of the five most aggressive assumptions with a conservative alternative and the revenue impact of switching to it. 4. Write the ten questions a skeptical investor or lender would ask and the evidence that answers each. 5. Recommend definitions for base, downside, and upside cases. OUTPUT FORMAT: Growth comparison, driver tests, assumption table, question list, and case definitions. QUALITY BAR: Be demanding but fair. Show the arithmetic behind every back-of-envelope test. FOLLOW-UP: Ask me what evidence supports the growth rate in the first forecast year.
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